Results of the cost of production survey, National Pricing Formula, and exceptional circumstances

October 6, 2025 

Below are the results for the indexed cost of production (iCOP), annual change in the consumer price index (CPI), and National Pricing Formula (NPF). The criteria to initiate the exceptional circumstances mechanism are also evaluated. The formula results presented here do not necessarily correspond to a final price adjustment. 

The CDC calculated the 2024 cost of production indexed to the three-month period ending August 2025. The 2025 iCOP is $92.82/standard hl.  

• The 2024 cost of production survey study (before indexation) confirms an increase in on farm costs compared to the 2023 survey results. Efficiencies in cash costs and component yields were offset by rising interest rates, which continued to put upward pressure on capital costs for depreciation, interest paid and return on equity. Producer labour also increased due to a shift in the labour mix and rising labour costs.  
• The 2023 iCOP calculated last year ($90.36/hl) underestimated the 2024 COP survey standardized results ($93.45/hl) by $3.09/hl.  
• Since 2024, interest rates and purchased feed costs have decreased. Since 2025, other indices have remained relatively stable downward pressure from lower feed costs and interest rates decreased the COP by -$0.63/std hl when indexed. The chart below shows price index changes specific to key costs. 
• For more details on the results of the 2024 cost of production survey and 2025 iCOP, click here. 
• Information on the methodology of the cost of production survey and pricing can be found here. 

Evolution of Selected Indices

Source: Statistics Canada indices: v1324952483; v1230996147; v1230996090; v41691060; v41691058

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is another variable used to determine milk component price changes. 

• Over the last two 12-month periods ending August 2024, the CPI has increased by 1.93%.

To calculate the magnitude of price adjustments to milk components, the National Pricing Formula (NFP) uses 50% of the annual change in iCOP and 50% of the annual change in CPI. 
 

• The NPF result is an increase of 2.3255% on February 1, 2026. This will not necessarily translate into the next price adjustment. 
• Alongside the NPF result, the CDC also evaluated whether stakeholders ^{Footnote 1} can invoke the exceptional circumstances mechanism. 
• Criteria 1 must be justified by stakeholders making the request.
• Criterion 2 is not met.
• Criterion 3 is not met. 

Stakeholders must inform the CDC in writing by 11 a.m. (ET) on October 14, 2025, whether or not they wish to invoke the exceptional circumstances mechanism. If exceptional circumstances are invoked, the result of the NPF will be suspended, and the CDC will hold consultations on a potential price adjustment and on the support price for butter. If none of the stakeholders invoke the mechanism for exceptional circumstances, the NPF result will apply, and the CDC will hold consultations on the support price for butter only.